California’s almond bloom makes an unusual claim on the nation’s bees: a survey estimates that 90% of U.S. honeybee colonies are needed to pollinate the state’s more than 1.4 million acres of almond orchards. That scale leaves little room for a weak colony—or for one that goes missing.

For growers, the squeeze shows up in the rental price. Fees have climbed from less than $50 to as much as $230 per hive this year, according to reporting on the pollination market. The price is one part of the problem; getting the promised strength into the orchard is another.

A market with little slack

Beekeepers are reporting significant losses from hive thefts. The thefts are attributed to high demand and a low supply of strong colonies, a tight market in which a hive’s value is tied to more than the wooden box and its bees. Some beekeepers are turning to tracking devices to protect hives.

The scale of almond demand helps explain the pressure: the survey’s estimate of how much of the U.S. colony supply is drawn into California almond pollination comes from coverage of the rising theft concerns.

The strength behind the hive count

Denise Qualls, a pollination broker, suggests the thefts may also reflect a gap between what some beekeepers promise and what they can deliver: strong colonies may be hard to provide in a market this tight. That possibility complicates the story. A missing hive is visible; a colony that arrives but falls short of its contracted strength is harder to assess.

For almond operations, the distinction matters at contracting and delivery. A count of hives alone may not answer whether the pollination service bought on paper is the service present in the orchard.

The theft concern is therefore not just about protecting equipment. It sits alongside a more basic question for the next bloom: how growers and beekeepers will define, verify and account for colony strength when supply is tight.