The August almond shipment report has a tell: its export line rose while the market was still taking stock of what remained from last season. For growers and handlers, that makes the month’s trade figures more than a backward glance.
Prices have firmed as available supply narrows and European demand holds up, according to the market report. The market is balancing two clocks: the crop coming off California trees and the inventory carried into the new season.
The crop is only half the ledger
The 2026/27 California crop is forecast at 2.694 billion pounds, a modest reduction from the prior year. A slightly smaller harvest matters, but it does not tell buyers how much product is already on hand.
That second part of the ledger has tightened too: edible carry-in is estimated around 447 million pounds, down nearly 3% from last year, according to the market update. Carry-in is an unglamorous figure, but it sets the starting cushion for handlers trying to cover sales before the new crop is fully accounted for.
Shipments give Q4 its signal
August exports rose more than 30% year over year. Blue Diamond Growers’ September market report puts the month’s export shipments at 143.2 million pounds, with the domestic market also taking product.
Total commitments approached 500 million pounds, pointing to substantial demand ahead. Commitments are not the same as shipments completed, which is why the pace of exports matters as much as the headline tally.
For California handlers and buyers, that distinction can shape availability and the timing of offers. Strong bookings can support sellers, but the market still has to turn promised demand into product moving through the system.
For growers, export movement is the practical signal to carry into Q4 pricing conversations. If shipments keep pace, the tighter supply picture has more support; if they slow, the market’s confidence may have less to lean on.