A kilogram is the unit in which India’s almond market is sending its latest signal: prices have climbed ₹20–25, to roughly ₹1,000–1,070/kg, as buyers stock up for Diwali. The festival-season price rise is a retail-market detail with a long supply chain behind it, running back to California orchards and handlers.
That pull is showing up in California’s export figures. August shipments reached about 190 million pounds, up 20% from a year earlier, while shipments to India grew more than 30%.
Two markets, different signals
The U.S. side of the ledger has not followed the same direction: domestic shipments remain slightly below the prior year. The contrast in shipment trends points to demand leaning more heavily on international buyers.
For California’s almond trade, that makes the destination of a sale matter as much as the general direction of the market. Stronger buying tied to one festival can firm the tone without telling a handler how durable demand will be after the seasonal rush.
A tighter crop behind the price
The 2026/27 California crop is projected to come in below last season’s, a supply backdrop that is contributing to tighter conditions. The smaller-crop outlook gives the export demand a different weight than it would have in a year of expanding supply.
The available figures do not put a size on the crop reduction or establish how long the festival buying will hold. For now, the market story is a meeting of seasonal demand and a less abundant crop, rather than a clean signal from every buyer.