In an almond orchard, a winter forecast is a map with a missing legend: a storm total does not say how much water will be useful later, or where it will be stored. El Niño makes the coming season more likely to bring heavy precipitation, but the route from storm to supply is not automatic.
The system has been described as a super El Niño. An August National Weather Service report put the chance of its strength exceeding previous El Niño events dating back to 1950 at 69%, according to the California Farm Bureau report. That is a probability about the climate pattern, not a promise of rain at any particular orchard.
A wetter signal, with a warmer catch
El Niño raises the probability of above-average winter precipitation, with the signal strongest in Southern California, according to the California Farm Bureau Federation's report. For almond operations, that points to a season worth preparing for without treating a statewide outlook as a field-level forecast.
The complication is temperature. California winters have been warming, and experts expect that trend to continue; more precipitation therefore does not guarantee more snow accumulating in the state's snowpack. A wet winter and a dependable supply for later use are not interchangeable.
Keep the forecast separate from the water budget
For almond managers, the useful distinction is between preparing for excess water and counting on extra water. Irrigation budgets still need to reflect actual deliveries and field conditions, while drainage and access plans should account for the possibility of intense storms. UC Agriculture and Natural Resources has gathered El Niño preparation guidance for California communities and agricultural operations.
The Department of Water Resources has also urged Californians to prepare for potential inland and coastal flooding. Its statewide preparedness notice is a reminder that the forecast has two sides: too much water in the wrong place can be an operational problem even as growers plan for water availability.