At an almond packing line, weight is the easy part to count. Kernel size is where a crop turns from tonnage into the assortment a buyer can order.
That distinction runs through Blue Diamond Growers’ October market report: sales are moving briskly, while the crop outlook points to less abundance in some familiar varieties and smaller kernels. The figures describe a market in motion, not a single answer about what any one orchard will return.
Orders are moving through
September shipments came to 232.5 million pounds, up 17.9% from a year earlier; year-to-date shipments reached 422.6 million pounds, a 19.03% increase. The shipment figures put the month among the stronger openings to the crop year.
Exports recorded their strongest September in six years. India stood out within that flow, with demand up 136% from the prior year and 148% year to date, according to Blue Diamond’s report.
New sales for the month totaled 264.3 million pounds, 20% above a year earlier. Shipped plus committed volume was 952 million pounds, up 5.3% year over year, a measure of business already moving or booked rather than a forecast of orchard-gate returns.
The crop is not just a pound count
Blue Diamond put crop potential in a range of 2.56 billion to 2.62 billion pounds, with a center point of 2.59 billion. That outlook sits alongside reported lower crops of Nonpareil, Butte/Padre and California varieties.
Smaller kernel sizing adds another layer to the estimate. A crop can hold its weight and still deliver a different mix for sorting, sizing and packing; that matters to handlers matching inventory to orders, and to growers reading broad demand figures against the varieties they actually produce.
The report’s market totals are useful measures of movement, but they do not translate directly into a price for a particular variety or lot. The next industry position report will be a useful decision point for testing whether the brisk sales pace is continuing.